Makihara (002714): The highest pig price in history is expected to continue to grow

Makihara (002714): The highest pig price in history is expected to continue to grow

Makihara (002714): The highest pig price in history is expected to continue to grow

Report Summary: On the evening of March 26, the company released its 2018 annual report. The report was consolidated and the company realized sales revenue of 133.

880,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.

32%, net profit attributable to mother 5.

20 ppm, a decrease of 78 per year.


A dividend of 0 is paid for every 10 shares.

50 yuan (including tax), dividends paid 6.


In addition, the company expects operating results for the first quarter of 2019 to be possible.

200 million-5.

600 million.

  From a cost-to-income perspective, the net profit of the pig farming business is approximately 1.

0.5 billion.

At 5.

Of the US $ 200 million net profit attributable to mothers, the government subsidies related to daily business activities are about 3.

750,000 yuan, investment income and exchange losses total about 0.

4 ppm, so the company ‘s pig business only realized a net profit of about 1 from the revenue and cost of the main business.

50,000 yuan, head net profit 9.

5 yuan.

  The volume of slaughtering continued to grow rapidly, and the sales ratio of commercial pigs increased.

The company sells 1,101 live pigs.

10,000 heads, an increase of 52 in ten years.

14%, of which sales of commercial pigs, piglets and breeding pigs were 1,010 respectively.



80,000 heads, with an annual increase or decrease of 92.

8% /-55.

4% /-32.


The average price of primary pig sales is 11.

62 yuan / kg, down 19 before.

70%, budget decline is a supplementary 佛山桑拿网 precursor to the company’s maximization of net profit.

According to the company’s annual report guidelines, the number of listings in 2019 is expected to be 13-15 million heads.

At the end of 2018, at least the average growth of fixed assets and construction in progress, 50 million funds will be raised in 2018, corresponding to 4.75 million hair power, and the sharp increase in pig prices in 2019 and 2020 will bring real improvements in profit, which will strongly support the companyThe number of listings will increase from 2019 to 2021, and it is estimated that the number of listings will be 14, 1, 17 and 21 million heads in three years.

  African swine fever has raised the cost of epidemic prevention, and is facing the reality that raising breeding costs and reducing head profitability.

The African swine fever 杭州桑拿养生会所 epidemic broke out in 2018.The company is located in Henan, a severely affected area. In order to strengthen the epidemic prevention and control, the company added a new air system inside the pighouse, strengthened disinfection, replacement and upgrading and upgrading of the pighouse, which will inevitably cause unit costs.On the upside, according to the expectations of the quarterly performance indicators, the unit complete cost will rise to about 12.

5 yuan / kg, head average profit fell by about 100 yuan, but under the potential expectation that pig prices hit a record high, we believe that the company’s performance is still dominated by high yields, and the average head profit level in 2020 can reach at least 600-700 yuanLeft and right historical highs.

  Profit forecast: It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers will be 46 in 2019-2021.7/131.


200 million, EPS is 2.



76 yuan, P / E is 24.



7 times, give “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: Uncontrollable risk of swine fever epidemic, the production volume is less than expected, natural disaster