Taoli Bread (603866)： Ten-year Sword Short-term Guarantee Champion
Taoli Bread (603866): Ten-year Sword Short-term Guarantee Champion
The industry has large space but low concentration. The company has a mature expansion model and high barriers. It is expected to steadily expand and grow into an absolute leader in the industry.
Dali’s cooperation in the short-term insurance market is greater than competition, and it is optimistic about the company’s long-term growth and profitability.
Investment highlights: Investment advice: The 都市夜网 first coverage is given to EPS 1 in 2019-21.
92 yuan forecast, with reference to comparable companies to give 47 times PE in 2019, target price of 55 yuan, increase the level.
The split faucet has expanded steadily, and has long-term incentives to land.
The bread industry’s main business is stable in profitability, has a regional expansion with high cost performance and a stable population.
The expansion model is mature, and the market is first cultivated and then set up factories. Since 2011, it has continued to occupy fast-growing markets such as East China, South China, and North China. The central factory + wholesale model has continued to be verified.
Although the company is family-controlled, it has formed a stable and continuous employee stock ownership plan, which has solved the long-term incentive problem for many years.
Based on the Northeast and look forward to the whole country.
The Northeast market is the early stage of the company’s operation. The market cultivates the most mature sales areas and contributes 50% of its revenue and profits.
North China, East China, Southwest, and Northwest also expanded earlier, with only a certain scale and relatively mature urban markets, and then gradually penetrated into surrounding cities.
South China and Central China started late, but have a dense population and lasting potential.
In general, the bread market is close to 40 billion yuan, with a prosperous economy and a low degree of concentration. The company is expected to rely on economies of scale and rapid market expansion to accelerate industry concentration and become an absolute leader in the industry.
Sharpen a sword in ten years, profit still has room for improvement.
Central factory + short-term guarantee With more superior supply chain management capabilities and market insights, it has long cultivated the patience of the market to provide prices and cost-effective products. It is more difficult to operate, but the barriers are also deeper.
The non-zero-sum game between Dali and Taoli, the cooperation between the two is greater than the competition. The cooperation effect of the richness of products, consumer education, and industrial ecology will be more obvious. Concentration will definitely accelerate the growth of the industry.Long-term bullish on corporate growth and profitability.
Core risks: early diversification of risk due to resource input, intensified risks in short-term competition